There is a disconnect between voter registrations and conventional polling in the swing states. I’ve revised my core voter registration model (see here) to identify the likely things that need to happen for Biden to win despite registration disadvantages. Here’s one path for Biden
- Democrat Excitement is Real: Counties that voted Democrat in 2016 would need to exhibit 2008 levels of turnout and voter preference, and
- New Republicans Go Back to Being Democrats: Counties that flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2016 would need to exhibit 2012 levels of turnout and voter preference, and
- Independent Voters Come Home: 60% of voters who would vote for third-party candidates, as implied by 2016 levels (which were more than double prior years) would need to instead vote for one of the major party candidates, and
- Independents Break for Biden: Of those Other voters returning to the fold, 80% would need to break for Democrats
- Republican Strongholds Remain That Way: If the above happened, and counties that voted Republican in both 2012 and 2016 exhibited 2016 levels of turnout and voter preference. . .
Biden would flip Michigan and Wisconsin handily, win by the slimmest of margins in Pennsylvania, and with that win the election:
|Electoral Votes||Biden||Trump||Vote Differential for Democrats|
As the vote differentials show, Biden would also have a strong chance in Arizona and Iowa. He could lose Pennsylvania and win Arizona and the electoral college 271-267.
Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the personal and subjective judgments and assumptions of the author only. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted and actual results will be different. The accuracy of data is not guaranteed but represents the author’s best judgment and can be derived from a variety of sources. The information is subject to change at any time without notice.