Many global financial markets are shifting to a state of non-equilibrium, during which unexpected price movements, possibly beyond rational expectations, can occur. The current probability level implied by my models is quite high, one off the highest in several years. The NASDAQ is exhibiting pattern structures seen in 1998, and global financial markets appear contextually similar to sovereign debt issues+currency turmoil+oil market volatility. In 1998, the NASDAQ made a key high on July 21 and progressed downward from there. The NASDAQ has made an important high on July 20th this year. I am watching for a similar pattern to emerge.
Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the author only. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted and actual results will be different. Accuracy of data is not guaranteed but represents the author’s best judgment and can be derived from a variety of sources. The information is subject to change at any time without notice.