Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions:
- One or more of the dozens of antibody tests in development works
- Private supply chains distribute these tests across the globe
- Western democracies adopt reasonable, non-dystopian approaches to identify “green & red” zones and people
- U.S. economy and stock market experience a V-shaped recovery
- President Trump is reelected
This will not be a straight road. I expect more horrible headlines, more deaths, and more infections in the U.S. But we will get through this. A bet that it will get a lot worse is a bet against America. Very few people have gotten rich (or stayed alive depending on the type of war) making that bet.
Prepare for a Successful Antibody Test
Few sane people disagree that we need to maximize testing. This way, you can establish who is well, who is sick, which areas are well, which areas are sick. People are waking up to the fact that we should test the healthy, not just the sick. If you live in New York City, you are not far from some of the action. Per the New York Post on March 24th:
“Researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai have developed an antibody test and shared the directions online for how to make it so labs around the globe can duplicate it”Source
The study is posted here. Live Science points out that it is still early innings:
The study has been posted on the preprint server medRxiv, which means it has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, and as such, it’s too early to use in clinical practice with patients.Source
Also getting a lot of press today is the U.K. effort. Per New Scientist:
The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests designed to reveal whether people have been infected with the new coronavirus.Source
Sure, we don’t yet know if the tests will be accurate:
How accurate do the tests need to be? “It’s very difficult to say,” says Emily Adams at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine in the UK, who is helping assess the tests developed by Mologic, one of the companies supplying the UK. Part of that process will be working out what accuracy is required for different uses, says Adams.Source
Nonetheless, you decide if this effort or the dozens of other ones across the globe focused on antibody testing will ALL fail? And you can bet your bottom dollar than any successful test in a democracy will be shared across the globe by its inventors, like the Mount Sinai work was.
Prepare for Supply Chains to Supply
Prepare for Green and Red
It may not have been timed well, but the President’s letter to Governors was the first step in preparing the country for red and green zones. Once antibody testing is widespread, some version of this will have to occur, to allow parts of the economy to restart. China has already begun doing this with people. Dozens of ideas are being debated. Expect a few different ones to get tried.
Prepare for Four More Years
The intensity of the crisis and the daily press briefings are free advertising that no Democratic challenger can match. Millions of people are tuning in, out of desperation, fear, or a genuine need for information. It’s not pretty, but almost any President will look somewhat presidential during this process. It is virtually impossible for Joe Biden to command the national stage right now. He has not shown himself to be comfortable or savvy in the COVID-19 era.
Don’t expect Trump to change his style. If the worst-case models are proven to be true, he’s already lost. So he might as well double down on what has gotten him here and swing for the fences.
Absent societal collapse, it is another four years of President Trump.
Prepare for a V-Shaped Recovery
I’m reiterating my view from Thursday. The stock market has put in its low and I expect it to recover all losses this year. We are in a golden age of private sector innovation, scientific research, and technological advancement. We can now expect a golden age of biology as well. Ignore the shrieks about the government not paying attention to science. The slow start by the federal government was issues of personality (Trump), bureaucracy (CDC), and politics (Congress has abdicated too much power).
This personal blog and its articles are written because of the author’s passion to advance his understanding of deep learning, complexity science, and major global events in markets, politics, and society. Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the personal and subjective judgments and assumptions of the author only, not those of any organization or entity that the author is affiliated with. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted and actual results will be different. The accuracy of data is not guaranteed but represents the author’s best judgment and can be derived from a variety of sources. The information is subject to change at any time without notice.