Trump - Complexity Everywhere

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A collection of 5 posts

Swing State Series - Michigan

Swing State Series - Michigan

Votes win elections, not polls. And you can’t vote if you don’t register. Last October [https://complexityeverywhere.com/trump-can-hold-the-rust-belt/], I built a voter model (CE-VM) and showed how registrations in Michigan were trending in favor of the President. Elevated registrations are actually occurring in 2016 Republican counties, a

2020 Outlook

Entering year 4 of a 15-year private sector confidence cycle, expect a mixed bag for risk-on asset classes in a world weighed down by the continued miscalculations of public sector actors. Major Themes: 1. A Mixed Bag for Risk-on Assets in 2020: The S&P 500 rises modestly; so does

2019 Year in Review

2019 Year in Review

Entering 2019, I wrote here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/2019-outlook-event-risk-everywhere/] about three themes impacting markets, politics, and society. Each has materialized, in some form, and with varying impact. * Tangible Government Regulation of Big Tech Platforms * Dramatic and Rapid Breakdown Of Post-WW2 Multilateral Structures * Military Conflict Between India and Pakistan and Between

Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan)

machine learning

Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan)

Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). I built a Random Forest model called CE-VM to predict likely 2020 total votes (turnout) in every U.S. county. CE-VM predicts that~135M votes will be cast in 2020, up from

Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too!

Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too!

NLP Analysis of the President’s Tweets on Trade (With Some Inspiration From Russians by Sting) In Europe and America, There’s a growing feeling of hysteria. Markets are catching up to the staying power of the trade war. As I wrote on May 23rd here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/when-saying-and-doing-are-the-same-thing-in-a-trade-war/