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tradewar

A collection of 4 posts

2020 Outlook

Entering year 4 of a 15-year private sector confidence cycle, expect a mixed bag for risk-on asset classes in a world weighed down by the continued miscalculations of public sector actors. Major Themes: 1. A Mixed Bag for Risk-on Assets in 2020: The S&P 500 rises modestly; so does

Congress Supports the Trade War, Even if You Don't

Congress Supports the Trade War, Even if You Don't

Conventional wisdom is that Congress doesn’t support the trade war. Sentiment analysis of every member’s Twitter feeds paints a different picture. TL;DR: Congress is about as negative on China as the President is. And their followers are rewarding negative China tweets with more likes and retweets. With

When Saying and Doing Are the Same Thing in a Trade War

When Saying and Doing Are the Same Thing in a Trade War

Investors continue to assume that what President Trump says and does on trade will be two different things. Actual events have proven otherwise, and global markets have not yet figured this out. We are on the verge of an upshift in geopolitical tension that will impact all markets. Since my

Trade War Latest: Comparable Powers, Incomparable Ideologies

Trade War Latest: Comparable Powers, Incomparable Ideologies

Today’s market drop shows that investors are starting to realize that we are not just in a trade war, but a new era of geopolitical competition between the United States and China. As I wrote in January here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/2019-outlook-event-risk-everywhere/], a dramatic and rapid breakdown of post-WW2