complex systems US Stocks are set up for a dramatic surge into year-end While the long-term remains uncertain, the rest of 2019 should be very positive During the summer, I expressed a three-part argument here, here, and here, for a downward transition in stocks: Critical slowing down (CSD), a phenomenon observed as complex systems going through a transition, in the S&P
china When Saying and Doing Are the Same Thing in a Trade War Investors continue to assume that what President Trump says and does on trade will be two different things. Actual events have proven otherwise, and global markets have not yet figured this out. We are on the verge of an upshift in geopolitical tension that will impact all markets. Since my
federal reserve Is the Fed Really Data-Driven? Markets are 65% certain of a rate-cut by year-end. Are they right? This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the U.S. Commerce Department released its Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This index, otherwise known as the PCE Deflator, is the Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation. According
complex systems Will Investors Fall Out of Love with Stocks? Investor Portfolio Allocation to Equities Ever since reading about it here at the always insightful Philosophical Economics blog, I have been fascinated by the notion of Investor Portfolio Allocation to Equities, a statistic tracked by the U.S. Federal Reserve here. The metric provides a good picture of the relative
