It felt pretty good to be wrong this time. History rhymed, it did not repeat. The Biden-Harris campaign overcame a bunch of historical hurdles, an unorthodox opponent in the sitting President, and a global pandemic. They did so with intelligence, grace, and dignity (compare Jen O’Malley Dillon to

There is a disconnect between voter registrations and conventional polling in the swing states. I’ve revised my core voter registration model (see here) to identify the likely things that need to happen for Biden to win despite registration disadvantages. Here’s one path for Biden Democrat Excitement

There is a groundswell of attention being paid to voter registrations in key swing states, driven in part by a widely circulated report by well-known JPMorgan quant analyst Marko Kolanovic. I first wrote about the importance of registrations last Fall, using Michigan as the example. I am making four arguments

Election forecasters continue to undervalue concrete data on actual voter registrations in competitive states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin appears to be a story of lost Democrat support, much more so than gained Republican support. President Trump garnered essentially the same vote total as Senator Romney did in 2012.