presidential election Four New Years, Two Important Months It felt pretty good to be wrong this time. History rhymed, it did not repeat. The Biden-Harris campaign overcame a bunch of historical hurdles, an unorthodox opponent in the sitting
presidential election What Voter Registrations Imply It Would Take for Biden to Win There is a disconnect between voter registrations and conventional polling in the swing states. I’ve revised my core voter registration model (see here) to identify the likely things
presidential election If Voter Registrations Matter, Trump is Ahead There is a groundswell of attention being paid to voter registrations in key swing states, driven in part by a widely circulated report by well-known JPMorgan quant analyst Marko Kolanovic.
presidential election Swing State Series - Wisconsin Election forecasters continue to undervalue concrete data on actual voter registrations in competitive states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin appears to be a story of lost Democrat support, much
2020 election Swing State Series - Michigan Votes win elections, not polls. And you can’t vote if you don’t register. Last October, I built a voter model (CE-VM) and showed how registrations in
