bitcoin Bitcoin - Perhaps Not too Late to Be Early As of this writing, Bitcoin prices in USD are about >250% year-to-date. I was wrong on my bearish view, last November. That post was full of well thought out underlying
complex systems The Prepared Are Planning for Victory Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions: One or more of the
coronavirus Who Shall Fight on the Beaches? The 2020 COVID-19 battle confirms that most global risk emanates from miscalculated, misguided, and increasingly autocratic actions of the world’s political class. The American people are not being
china 2020 Outlook Entering year 4 of a 15-year private sector confidence cycle, expect a mixed bag for risk-on asset classes in a world weighed down by the continued miscalculations of public sector
2019 2019 Year in Review Entering 2019, I wrote here about three themes impacting markets, politics, and society. Each has materialized, in some form, and with varying impact. Tangible Government Regulation of Big Tech PlatformsDramatic
machine learning Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan) Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). I built a Random Forest model called CE-VM to predict likely 2020
deep learning Stocks and Bonds are Now Both Right - No Recession in Sight Expect Stocks to Make New Highs as the Economy Firms Up Recession fears are everywhere. The US-China trade war, Middle East violence, impeachment in DC, protests in Hong Kong, and
deep learning Odds Increase That the Fed Doesn't Cut Rates This Week Another FOMC decision is upon us. Expectations are for a 25 bps cut. Equity markets are near all-time highs and US economic data continues to be resilient. A communications embargo
deep learning Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too! NLP Analysis of the President’s Tweets on Trade (With Some Inspiration From Russians by Sting) In Europe and America, There’s a growing feeling of hysteria. Markets are
crude oil Summer of Our Discontent in Markets - Part 3 This is the third in a three-part series on the growing likelihood of a major transition in major markets. Part 1 focused on Macro Event Risk and Cycles.
china Trade War Latest: Comparable Powers, Incomparable Ideologies Today’s market drop shows that investors are starting to realize that we are not just in a trade war, but a new era of geopolitical competition between the
india Unilateral Action in South Asia In my 12/31/18 post here, I talked about the likelihood of three unexpected themes that could contribute to growing global event risk and falling public sector confidence. Two
