politics - Complexity Everywhere

Bitcoin - Perhaps Not too Late to Be Early

As of this writing, Bitcoin prices in USD are about >250% year-to-date. I was wrong on my bearish view, last November. That post was full of well thought out underlying weaknesses in Bitcoin and a Random Forest model predicting a year-end 2020 price of around $9,000. It’s

complex systems

The Prepared Are Planning for Victory

Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions: One or more of the dozens of antibody tests in development worksPrivate supply chains distribute these tests across the globeWestern democracies adopt reasonable, non-dystopian approaches

coronavirus

Who Shall Fight on the Beaches?

The 2020 COVID-19 battle confirms that most global risk emanates from miscalculated, misguided, and increasingly autocratic actions of the world’s political class. The American people are not being spared. Our highest levels of government are embracing autocratic techniques in response to COIVID-19. In an era of private sector

china

2020 Outlook

Entering year 4 of a 15-year private sector confidence cycle, expect a mixed bag for risk-on asset classes in a world weighed down by the continued miscalculations of public sector actors. Major Themes: A Mixed Bag for Risk-on Assets in 2020: The S&P 500 rises modestly; so does

2019

2019 Year in Review

Entering 2019, I wrote here about three themes impacting markets, politics, and society. Each has materialized, in some form, and with varying impact. Tangible Government Regulation of Big Tech PlatformsDramatic and Rapid Breakdown Of Post-WW2 Multilateral StructuresMilitary Conflict Between India and Pakistan and Between Israel and Arab States I also

machine learning

Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan)

Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). I built a Random Forest model called CE-VM to predict likely 2020 total votes (turnout) in every U.S. county. CE-VM predicts that~135M votes will be cast in 2020, up from

deep learning

Stocks and Bonds are Now Both Right - No Recession in Sight

Expect Stocks to Make New Highs as the Economy Firms Up Recession fears are everywhere. The US-China trade war, Middle East violence, impeachment in DC, protests in Hong Kong, and Brexit have all weighed on the economy. These fears are likely overblown. Consumer economic data remains robust and the Fed

deep learning

Odds Increase That the Fed Doesn't Cut Rates This Week

Another FOMC decision is upon us. Expectations are for a 25 bps cut. Equity markets are near all-time highs and US economic data continues to be resilient. A communications embargo has limited public FOMC communications. NLP analysis of available FOMC communications suggests a much lower likelihood of a rate cut

deep learning

Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too!

NLP Analysis of the President’s Tweets on Trade (With Some Inspiration From Russians by Sting) In Europe and America, There’s a growing feeling of hysteria. Markets are catching up to the staying power of the trade war. As I wrote on May 23rd here: Investors continue to

crude oil

Summer of Our Discontent in Markets - Part 3

This is the third in a three-part series on the growing likelihood of a major transition in major markets. Part 1 focused on Macro Event Risk and Cycles. Part 2 discussed the application of popular complex systems Early Warning Signals (EWS) to assess a possible “critical transition&

china

Trade War Latest: Comparable Powers, Incomparable Ideologies

Today’s market drop shows that investors are starting to realize that we are not just in a trade war, but a new era of geopolitical competition between the United States and China. As I wrote in January here, a dramatic and rapid breakdown of post-WW2 multilateral structures is

india

Unilateral Action in South Asia

In my 12/31/18 post here, I talked about the likelihood of three unexpected themes that could contribute to growing global event risk and falling public sector confidence. Two have taken center stage in the first two months of the year. Unexpected Theme: Dramatic and Rapid Breakdown Of Post-WW2