neural networks - Complexity Everywhere

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neural networks

A collection of 5 posts

Stocks and Bonds are Now Both Right - No Recession in Sight

Stocks and Bonds are Now Both Right - No Recession in Sight

Expect Stocks to Make New Highs as the Economy Firms Up Recession fears are everywhere. The US-China trade war, Middle East violence, impeachment in DC, protests in Hong Kong, and Brexit have all weighed on the economy. These fears are likely overblown. Consumer economic data remains robust and the Fed

Congress Supports the Trade War, Even if You Don't

Congress Supports the Trade War, Even if You Don't

Conventional wisdom is that Congress doesn’t support the trade war. Sentiment analysis of every member’s Twitter feeds paints a different picture. TL;DR: Congress is about as negative on China as the President is. And their followers are rewarding negative China tweets with more likes and retweets. With

Optimism is on the Menu; A Recession is Not

Optimism is on the Menu; A Recession is Not

The yield curve has inverted, the trade war [https://complexityeverywhere.com/believe-me-when-i-say-to-you-i-hope-you-love-a-trade-war-too/] seems to be in early innings, and economic data is being revised [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-created-500000-fewer-jobs-since-2018-than-previously-reported-new-figures-show-2019-08-21] downward. Forecasters are warning of a recession and even financial panic. CNBC has been replete with talk of markets in

A Data-Driven Fed Wouldn't Cut Rates

artificial intelligence

A Data-Driven Fed Wouldn't Cut Rates

TL;DR on Fed Rate Cuts The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its rate decision on Wednesday. A robust review of economic data does not support a rate cut; I built both a neural network and random forest model trained on 72 economic indicators (monthly data going back

My Neural Network Bracket Loved Auburn All The Way to the Final Four

artificial intelligence

My Neural Network Bracket Loved Auburn All The Way to the Final Four

Digging Deep [Learning] to Win March Madness I built a neural network to make my NCAA men’s tournament picks this year for my office pool. As of this writing, an Auburn win and Michigan State loss in the Final Four, and I win bragging rights for a year! I