macroeconomics - Complexity Everywhere

macroeconomics

A collection of 5 posts

There's Reason to be Optimistic About the COVID-19 War

There's Reason to be Optimistic About the COVID-19 War

As much as I believe in an immediate national shutdown for 30-45 days with a complete economic backstop, that appears unlikely for now. America is not an autocracy, it is a federal republic [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_republic]. We have the most robust state and local government bureaucracy

"Often Wrong, Never in Doubt"

federal reserve

"Often Wrong, Never in Doubt"

Stan Druckenmiller’s Economic Club Speech – Part 1 The statement “often wrong, never in doubt” from famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller got a good laugh from the audience at The Economic Club of New York, where Druckenmiller spoke [https://www.facebook.com/econclubny/videos/2248264695265915] on June 3, 2019. It was

Summer of our Discontent In Markets - Part 2

complex systems

Summer of our Discontent In Markets - Part 2

This is the second in a three-part series on the growing likelihood of a transition in major markets. Part 1 [https://complexityeverywhere.com/summer-of-our-discontent-in-markets-part-1/] focused on Macro Event Risk and Cycles. This post discusses the application of popular complex systems Early Warning Signals (EWS) to assess a possible transition in

When Saying and Doing Are the Same Thing in a Trade War

When Saying and Doing Are the Same Thing in a Trade War

Investors continue to assume that what President Trump says and does on trade will be two different things. Actual events have proven otherwise, and global markets have not yet figured this out. We are on the verge of an upshift in geopolitical tension that will impact all markets. Since my

I’d Take Santa Claus Over Robinhood Any Day

I’d Take Santa Claus Over Robinhood Any Day

In a World Where The Private Sector Is Ascendant, Expect More Taking Than Giving Confidence in Tech Sector I’ve talked regularly about the impact of confidence shifting between public and private sector forces, a shift that seems to occur on a rhythmic pattern over decades. Often, humanity altering events