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machine learning

A collection of 3 posts

Will You Give Thanks for Bitcoin?

Will You Give Thanks for Bitcoin?

After falling as much as 35% from late October levels, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely on the cusp of a dramatic + or – 50% move. BTC has price memory around 6,500, and a break below should take the market to 2018 lows around 3,000. A bounce could result in a

Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan)

machine learning

Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan)

Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). I built a Random Forest model called CE-VM to predict likely 2020 total votes (turnout) in every U.S. county. CE-VM predicts that~135M votes will be cast in 2020, up from

Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too!

Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too!

NLP Analysis of the President’s Tweets on Trade (With Some Inspiration From Russians by Sting) In Europe and America, There’s a growing feeling of hysteria. Markets are catching up to the staying power of the trade war. As I wrote on May 23rd here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/when-saying-and-doing-are-the-same-thing-in-a-trade-war/