Expect Stocks to Make New Highs as the Economy Firms Up Recession fears are everywhere. The US-China trade war, Middle East violence, impeachment in DC, protests in Hong Kong, and Brexit have all weighed on the economy. These fears are likely overblown. Consumer economic data remains robust and the Fed
Another FOMC decision is upon us. Expectations are for a 25 bps cut. Equity markets are near all-time highs and US economic data continues to be resilient. A communications embargo has limited public FOMC communications. NLP analysis of available FOMC communications suggests a much lower likelihood of a rate cut
Conventional wisdom is that Congress doesn’t support the trade war. Sentiment analysis of every member’s Twitter feeds paints a different picture. TL;DR: Congress is about as negative on China as the President is. And their followers are rewarding negative China tweets with more likes and retweets. With
The yield curve has inverted, the trade war [https://complexityeverywhere.com/believe-me-when-i-say-to-you-i-hope-you-love-a-trade-war-too/] seems to be in early innings, and economic data is being revised [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-created-500000-fewer-jobs-since-2018-than-previously-reported-new-figures-show-2019-08-21] downward. Forecasters are warning of a recession and even financial panic. CNBC has been replete with talk of markets in
NLP Analysis of the President’s Tweets on Trade (With Some Inspiration From Russians by Sting) In Europe and America, There’s a growing feeling of hysteria. Markets are catching up to the staying power of the trade war. As I wrote on May 23rd here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/when-saying-and-doing-are-the-same-thing-in-a-trade-war/
Deciphering FedSpeak1, the words and intentions of the Federal Reserve, has become a full-time job in financial markets and media. And markets have placed their bets leading up to the July 31 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. As of today, the widely watched CME FedWatch Tool [https://www.cmegroup.