complex systems - Complexity Everywhere

The Prepared Are Planning for Victory

Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions: One or more of the dozens of antibody tests in development worksPrivate supply chains distribute these tests across the globeWestern democracies adopt reasonable, non-dystopian approaches

complex systems

The New COVID-19 Base Case is Shutdown, Suppression, Backstop the Entire Economy, Hammer & Dance

The disruption caused by the virus is a surprise attack by an enemy. The enemy is invisible and strikes without warning. It snuck across our borders while we celebrated stock market highs and a Kansa City Super Bowl win. It is here, not far away on the shores of Normandy

complex systems

US Stocks are set up for a dramatic surge into year-end

While the long-term remains uncertain, the rest of 2019 should be very positive During the summer, I expressed a three-part argument here, here, and here, for a downward transition in stocks: Critical slowing down (CSD), a phenomenon observed as complex systems going through a transition, in the S&P

complex systems

Summer of our Discontent In Markets - Part 2

This is the second in a three-part series on the growing likelihood of a transition in major markets. Part 1 focused on Macro Event Risk and Cycles. This post discusses the application of popular complex systems Early Warning Signals (EWS) to assess a possible transition in the S&P

complex systems

Summer of our Discontent In Markets - Part 1

Major equity and commodity markets are transitioning to risk-off. Many market observers rush to paint any downturn as the precursor to a 2008-style crisis. That does not appear to be in the cards. However, the odds of double-digit percentage downturns has risen. I am taking this view based on the

complex systems

Will Investors Fall Out of Love with Stocks?

Investor Portfolio Allocation to Equities Ever since reading about it here at the always insightful Philosophical Economics blog, I have been fascinated by the notion of Investor Portfolio Allocation to Equities, a statistic tracked by the U.S. Federal Reserve here. The metric provides a good picture of the relative