2020 election Swing States Series - Pennsylvania Election forecasters may be overweighting polls and underweighting voter registration data. Registration data has a lot of noise – it’s hard to judge how independents vote, voters cross parties, and get out the vote operations matter. But all things being equal, you’d rather have voters registered
2020 election Swing State Series - Michigan Votes win elections, not polls. And you can’t vote if you don’t register. Last October, I built a voter model (CE-VM) and showed how registrations in Michigan were trending in favor of the President. Elevated registrations are actually occurring in 2016 Republican counties, a phenomenon being
