Back From a One Year Writing Hiatus Just in Time!
After a one year hiatus on writing, I are putting pen to paper again. My 2017 Market outlook got a lot right. US Equities, in fact global equities, rallied strongly. The S&P 500 gained 22% for the year. Oil moved much higher, and has more room to grow. Gold did not move much lower, I missed that one. I expected turmoil in South Asia and a grand compromise of CRU, China-Russia-US. I feel the same way about India this year, and despite the blustery headlines, I believe the American hand is quite strong and China and Russia will come to the table for a grand security bargain. In my view, it is a matter of when, not if. More to come on my 2018 outlook.
I am excited because, after what seemed like a long break, the core complexity science based model has signaled the presence of a period of low predictability, or narrow corridor. In these periods, widely used models (be they long/short value or AI-based quant) tend to perform poorly. As is the strategy, I waited for the simplest implied directional signal in this environment, and that is upward. I are expecting a notable move up in US equities in February and early March. This may be a sell in May year, but I expect gains before then.
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Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the author only. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted and actual results will be different. Accuracy of data is not guaranteed but represents the author’s best judgment and can be derived from a variety of sources. The information is subject to change at any time without notice.