What RRR the movie, DALL-E, and TikTok tell us about the future of content creation
The globalization, automation, and democratization of content creation & distribution continues unabated. These trends present an existential threat to incumbent American content creators, everyone from social media giants, to streaming services, to professional sports leagues.
What Is The Most Important Question in the World Today?
The most important question in the world is whether the American-led world order is near or far from decline. I say this, not out of some jingoistic view of preserving what I am part of. To explain, I turn to the thought-provoking, perhaps life-changing views of Ray Dalio and David Deutsch.
Georgia On My Mind
Democrats appear favored to take both seats in the Special Election on January 6 in the Peach State. Polls [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/]are moving in their direction, including solid Republican ones [https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ga-sen-122/]. Registration trends since the election favor Democrats. Early voting offers some hope
Bitcoin - Perhaps Not too Late to Be Early
As of this writing, Bitcoin prices in USD are about >250% year-to-date. I was wrong on my bearish view [https://complexityeverywhere.com/bitcoin-thanksgiving/], last November. That post was full of well thought out underlying weaknesses in Bitcoin and a Random Forest model predicting a year-end 2020 price of around $9,
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Numbers
I’ve enjoyed the recent research and writing about politics and voting data. Time for a short break from that (at least until closer to the Georgia Senate election). Back to some deep learning topics for a bit. The most well-known advances in deep learning have been in computer vision
Four New Years, Two Important Months
It felt pretty good to be wrong this time. History rhymed, it did not repeat. The Biden-Harris campaign overcame a bunch of historical hurdles, an unorthodox opponent in the sitting President, and a global pandemic. They did so with intelligence, grace, and dignity (compare Jen O’Malley Dillon [https://www.
What Voter Registrations Imply It Would Take for Biden to Win
There is a disconnect between voter registrations and conventional polling in the swing states. I’ve revised my core voter registration model (see here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/if-voter-registrations-matter-trump-is-ahead/] ) to identify the likely things that need to happen for Biden to win despite registration disadvantages. Here’s one path for Biden
If Voter Registrations Matter, Trump is Ahead
There is a groundswell of attention being paid to voter registrations in key swing states, driven in part by a widely circulated report [https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/voter-registration-trends-trump-edge-jpmorgan] by well-known JPMorgan quant analyst Marko Kolanovic. I first wrote [https://complexityeverywhere.com/trump-can-hold-the-rust-belt/] about the importance of registrations last Fall,
Swing State Series - Wisconsin
Election forecasters continue to undervalue concrete data on actual voter registrations in competitive states such as Michigan [https://complexityeverywhere.com/how-trump-wins-the-rust-belt-and-the-election/] and Pennsylvania [https://complexityeverywhere.com/swing-states-series-pennsylvania/]. Wisconsin appears to be a story of lost Democrat support, much more so than gained Republican support. President Trump garnered essentially the same
Swing States Series - Pennsylvania
Election forecasters may be overweighting polls and underweighting voter registration data. Registration data has a lot of noise – it’s hard to judge how independents vote, voters cross parties, and get out the vote operations matter. But all things being equal, you’d rather have voters registered to your party,
Swing State Series - Michigan
Votes win elections, not polls. And you can’t vote if you don’t register. Last October [https://complexityeverywhere.com/trump-can-hold-the-rust-belt/], I built a voter model (CE-VM) and showed how registrations in Michigan were trending in favor of the President. Elevated registrations are actually occurring in 2016 Republican counties, a
Everything is at a Tipping Point
This era’s American arguments must be resolved successfully. America’s foundation is free and vigorous debate by its citizens. We thrive on arguments: liberal v. conservative, farmer v. banker, rural v. urban, incumbent v. startup, bull v. bear, protestor v. police, etc.. These arguments play themselves out in the
The Prepared Are Planning for Victory
Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions: * One or more of the dozens of antibody tests in development works * Private supply chains distribute these tests across the globe * Western democracies adopt reasonable,
There's Reason to be Optimistic About the COVID-19 War
As much as I believe in an immediate national shutdown for 30-45 days with a complete economic backstop, that appears unlikely for now. America is not an autocracy, it is a federal republic [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_republic]. We have the most robust state and local government bureaucracy