It felt pretty good to be wrong this time. History rhymed, it did not repeat. The Biden-Harris campaign overcame a bunch of historical hurdles, an unorthodox opponent in the sitting President, and a global pandemic. They did so with intelligence, grace, and dignity (compare Jen O’Malley Dillon [https://www.

There is a disconnect between voter registrations and conventional polling in the swing states. I’ve revised my core voter registration model (see here [https://complexityeverywhere.com/if-voter-registrations-matter-trump-is-ahead/] ) to identify the likely things that need to happen for Biden to win despite registration disadvantages. Here’s one path for Biden

There is a groundswell of attention being paid to voter registrations in key swing states, driven in part by a widely circulated report [https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/voter-registration-trends-trump-edge-jpmorgan] by well-known JPMorgan quant analyst Marko Kolanovic. I first wrote [https://complexityeverywhere.com/trump-can-hold-the-rust-belt/] about the importance of registrations last Fall,

Election forecasters continue to undervalue concrete data on actual voter registrations in competitive states such as Michigan [https://complexityeverywhere.com/how-trump-wins-the-rust-belt-and-the-election/] and Pennsylvania [https://complexityeverywhere.com/swing-states-series-pennsylvania/]. Wisconsin appears to be a story of lost Democrat support, much more so than gained Republican support. President Trump garnered essentially the same