georgia senate race Georgia On My Mind Democrats appear favored to take both seats in the Special Election on January 6 in the Peach State. Polls are moving in their direction, including solid Republican ones. Registration trends
bitcoin Bitcoin - Perhaps Not too Late to Be Early As of this writing, Bitcoin prices in USD are about >250% year-to-date. I was wrong on my bearish view, last November. That post was full of well thought out underlying
artificial intelligence A Picture is Worth a Thousand Numbers I’ve enjoyed the recent research and writing about politics and voting data. Time for a short break from that (at least until closer to the Georgia Senate election)
presidential election Four New Years, Two Important Months It felt pretty good to be wrong this time. History rhymed, it did not repeat. The Biden-Harris campaign overcame a bunch of historical hurdles, an unorthodox opponent in the sitting
presidential election What Voter Registrations Imply It Would Take for Biden to Win There is a disconnect between voter registrations and conventional polling in the swing states. I’ve revised my core voter registration model (see here) to identify the likely things
presidential election If Voter Registrations Matter, Trump is Ahead There is a groundswell of attention being paid to voter registrations in key swing states, driven in part by a widely circulated report by well-known JPMorgan quant analyst Marko Kolanovic.
presidential election Swing State Series - Wisconsin Election forecasters continue to undervalue concrete data on actual voter registrations in competitive states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin appears to be a story of lost Democrat support, much
2020 election Swing States Series - Pennsylvania Election forecasters may be overweighting polls and underweighting voter registration data. Registration data has a lot of noise – it’s hard to judge how independents vote, voters cross
2020 election Swing State Series - Michigan Votes win elections, not polls. And you can’t vote if you don’t register. Last October, I built a voter model (CE-VM) and showed how registrations in
Everything is at a Tipping Point This era’s American arguments must be resolved successfully. America’s foundation is free and vigorous debate by its citizens. We thrive on arguments: liberal v. conservative, farmer
complex systems The Prepared Are Planning for Victory Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions: One or more of the
covid-19 There's Reason to be Optimistic About the COVID-19 War As much as I believe in an immediate national shutdown for 30-45 days with a complete economic backstop, that appears unlikely for now. America is not an autocracy, it is
complex systems The New COVID-19 Base Case is Shutdown, Suppression, Backstop the Entire Economy, Hammer & Dance The disruption caused by the virus is a surprise attack by an enemy. The enemy is invisible and strikes without warning. It snuck across our borders while we celebrated stock
coronavirus Who Shall Fight on the Beaches? The 2020 COVID-19 battle confirms that most global risk emanates from miscalculated, misguided, and increasingly autocratic actions of the world’s political class. The American people are not being
china 2020 Outlook Entering year 4 of a 15-year private sector confidence cycle, expect a mixed bag for risk-on asset classes in a world weighed down by the continued miscalculations of public sector
2019 2019 Year in Review Entering 2019, I wrote here about three themes impacting markets, politics, and society. Each has materialized, in some form, and with varying impact. Tangible Government Regulation of Big Tech PlatformsDramatic
bitcoin Will You Give Thanks for Bitcoin? After falling as much as 35% from late October levels, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely on the cusp of a dramatic + or – 50% move. BTC has price memory around 6,
complex systems US Stocks are set up for a dramatic surge into year-end While the long-term remains uncertain, the rest of 2019 should be very positive During the summer, I expressed a three-part argument here, here, and here, for a downward transition in
machine learning Trump Can Hold The Rust Belt (Part 1: Michigan) Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). I built a Random Forest model called CE-VM to predict likely 2020
deep learning Stocks and Bonds are Now Both Right - No Recession in Sight Expect Stocks to Make New Highs as the Economy Firms Up Recession fears are everywhere. The US-China trade war, Middle East violence, impeachment in DC, protests in Hong Kong, and
deep learning Odds Increase That the Fed Doesn't Cut Rates This Week Another FOMC decision is upon us. Expectations are for a 25 bps cut. Equity markets are near all-time highs and US economic data continues to be resilient. A communications embargo
china Congress Supports the Trade War, Even if You Don't Conventional wisdom is that Congress doesn’t support the trade war. Sentiment analysis of every member’s Twitter feeds paints a different picture. TL;DR: Congress is about
deep learning Optimism is on the Menu; A Recession is Not The yield curve has inverted, the trade war seems to be in early innings, and economic data is being revised downward. Forecasters are warning of a recession and even financial
deep learning Believe Me When I Say To You, I Hope You Love a Trade War Too! NLP Analysis of the President’s Tweets on Trade (With Some Inspiration From Russians by Sting) In Europe and America, There’s a growing feeling of hysteria. Markets are
artificial intelligence A Data-Driven Fed Wouldn't Cut Rates TL;DR on Fed Rate Cuts The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its rate decision on Wednesday. A robust review of economic data does not support a rate
